The Year 2024 in the Australian Numismatic Trade

As we head into the final weeks of 2024 (what an incredible thing to say!), I feel now is a good time to step back and reflect on how the year went down. Reflection like this can be useful to identify corrective action that might be required, and even affirm positive action that is already being undertaken.

I'm going to review my understanding of where Australia's numismatic scene is at by considering the trade; our shows and the auction scene, and will put the spotlight on each major product area in a separate article.

As you read this, please keep in mind I'm clear that I'm commenting from my own perspective, I may not see all the changes that have taken or are taking place, but at least these thoughts will be something for you to consider.

Dealers

By and large, I think most of the established numismatic businesses that are operating in Australia in 2024 are working effectively. Anyone that is in business at the moment will have come through the lean years that followed the GFC, and specifically the lean years that ran from 2012 through to around 2019.

They also would have regained some ground during the COVID pandemic and the years that have followed, so would now have reasonably robust processes in place as well as resources to cope with most challenges.

There is some variation in business health though - I know several established dealers who haven't embraced the online business model and haven't benefited from the upswing in trade in that arena. Businesses that can't be found online have to rely on legacy media and channels to source new clients and inventory, that's far less effective than the alternative. I don't see those dealers being forced out of the trade at all, but don't believe they'll enjoy the same growth others will.

I also see that some of the newer dealers who joined the industry in the past few years after seeing the incredible demand for all things decimal are finding that inventory and new clients don't just fall out of the sky. If the cost of living remains a challenge for many Australians throughout 2025, we could well see some consolidation here. It's one thing to start a business with the hope of becoming profitable "one day", it's another to work without an income for several years.

Auction Houses

Let me preface this section by saying I've been to so few auctions in 2024 my opinion is probably not worth the paper it's printed on! My own lack of participation has been caused by two things - the increased volume of inbound stock our business has enjoyed in recent years and further the excellent work each auction house does to make their sales accessible to collectors.

I think I'm right in saying that "back in the day", the major buyers at numismatic auctions would all be dealers, with a few specialised collectors thrown in, depending on what inventory is being offered in any one sale. When catalogues were only available in print and sales weren't conducted online, one needed to be in the know to get access to the opportunities each sale contained.

These days, catalogues are obviously available in high-resolution and full colour online, and sales take place online as well. This increase in access allows collectors right across the country (scratch that, right across the world) to observe and participate in the auction process.

As a result, I expect the turnover in any one auction in 2024 is a lot more widely spread than it used to be. There will be a few dealers participating doggedly, but the rest of the spend will coming from collectors of all stripes and levels of participation.

In this environment, auction houses need good staff to work with vendors and to identify and describe the lots offered to them, and those human resources ain't always easy to attract, train or keep. I see some auction houses being challenged by the online model as well, with newer collectors entering the market favouring those auctions that are accessible over those that are not. That demand-side adjustment leads to a supply-side advantage as those auctioneers who enjoy demand can be more forthright about being able to fidn buyers for inventory than those that can't.

There is probably a higher likelihood of rationalisation in the Australian auction scene in 2024 than there is in the dealer fraternity, as technological disruption has been more impactful on auctions than dealers.

Trade Shows

I can make this summary pretty short for you - numismatic shows in Australia have never been as strong as they are in 2024. Although our own auction participation has dropped off in recent years, we're still regulars on the domestic show circuit. Whether we're talking about the major ANDA shows or the more local shows run by collector societies, there are always lots of bodies streaming in through the doors and coursing around the floor.

To be sure, a lot of these new faces have been enticed to attend by new pickings in their change or the excitement around a new release from one of our mints, but that could just be where they start. As a show regular, I see many folks queueing up to get the latest and greatest show release, then they head out the door as quickly as they come in. Others do stick around and look further afield, even if only a small minority of them convert into collectors of other types of coin or note, it still bodes well for the future of the hobby.

I see the staff and volunteers responsible for organising our numismatic shows embracing the online world - online advertising, networking in social media groups and the like, and this is paying dividends. If online promotion makes it easy to bring in those with a latent interest in numismatics through the doors of a show just once in a cost-effective way, I think it means our trade will continue to tick over nicely for some time to come.