The Year 2024 in Australian Numismatics
The end of the year is a great time to reflect on how things have gone, are going and might go. The first week of December is a little early for me to be doing this (the next few weeks are looking like being a vortex of buying and selling activity!), let's see what comes of this.
Pre-Federation Banknotes
This, the most historic and valuable section of the Australian market for paper currency, has been exploring new levels across 2024. I understand that several of the most active collectors of pre-fed notes passed away within the past year, which has impacted on the results we see at auction. Prices for specimens and proofs have come waaay back from where they were even a decade ago, at the same time I've seen some great new material come onto the market this year. This is an area that offers real value for collectors that have the confidence to stay the distance.
Pre-Decimal Banknotes
The pre-decimal note market has always been the main market for Australian notes, at least since I've been active anyway. As prices have eased over the past decade, its become far more accessible for the average collector to get into. What's interesting is that in the electronic age, notes that are easily-gradable via digital images are in keen demand (I'm thinking specifically of notes that grade between Very Good and Very Fine), while notes better than that sell at a slower pace. It isn't possible to tell whether a note advertised as Extremely Fine is in fact Extremely Fine from digital images, so lead times are probably longer as a result. I also believe the catalogue for this area of the market needs a complete revamp, if only because it isn't unusual to see an auction house setting a pre-sale estimate for a predecimal note at 25% of the current catalogue value! I know a number of collectors who have set their own rule of thumb when it comes to values - some won't pay any more than half CV, while others pay no more than the grade below. Either way, some work needs to be done to give buyers (and sellers) some direction in what numbers they should be dealing at.
Paper Decimal Banknotes
Several months ago, we started advertising paper decimal notes in "Great Condition" - numismatic purists will detest the term! We explain on each page the notes are what collectors might call Extremely Fine to about Unc condition, so not rare or particularly valuable, but nice to look at and safe to handle.
We now sell tens of thousands of dollars worth of these notes each year - I daresay they are more popular than the UNC notes we actually sell to collectors! This reflects a couple of things - novice collectors don't want or need rare notes to show their kids what money used to be like "back in the day", and they're a lot cheaper. A nice looking note at a modest premium over face value feels like good value, whereas an apparently perfect note that's much rarer is tougher for the novice to appreciate. This shows me the market for good paper decimal notes could (and maybe will) be much bigger, we just need to educate people why they're valuable.
Polymer Decimal Banknotes
I've been surprised at the lack of a leg up in the demand for polymer notes generally now that the Next Generation series is well and truly in circulation. I remember as we switched to polymer in the 90's, lots of people wanted to keep paper notes "for the kids", whereas we haven't seen that in the NNS (1st) polymer series yet.
The price guide for polymer notes could probably benefit from the same attention that the pre-decimal and paper decmal notes need, although it isn't quite as bad. I've heard of some big prices being paid for rare prefixes in the polymer series, so it's a market that is developing sophistication all the time.
World Banknotes
We don't do much in world notes ourselves, mainly because supply of them from the general public (in Perth at least) is quite limited. There is an active market for them right around the world (of course), so it isn't as affected by the local economy as our domestic notes might be. This is an interesting area that contains some great opportunities.
Proclamation Coins
Decent proclamation and colonial coins are tough to come by! I think it can be hard to price these coins at levels that reflect the international market, I know when I get it wrong an item will sit in stock for an extended period. Demand is still keen and I know from personal experience just this week that there will be some new research published on this subject in 2025.
Adelaide Pounds and Australian Gold Sovereigns
This is a market that has had certain sections more forward strongly across 2024, while others are yet to keep pace.
The gold spot price has risen by around 30% this calendar year, which has pushed up the value of our less expensive sovereigns very strongly. Coins that are just above that level (ie those that might be set at a premium of $1,000 or more over their metal value) take longer to move in my experience. Georges, Edwards and cheap Victorias can sell pretty quickly to buyers keen to get exposure to the gold price without paying too much of a premium, but demand for Young Heads, Shields and more valuable dates seems to be more price sensitive. I see nothing but upside in the gold market at the moment, so 2025 should be good for sovereigns.
Half Sovereigns
The same can be said for halves - there is a lot of demand for inexpensive coins because they are interesting and scarce, but move up the pay scale and demand for good halves is very concentrated. If the best halves come back to meet the market, I believe they'll be incredible buying. Rarity, history and beauty combine perfectly in this market, it is increasing in sophistication all the time.
Pre-decimal Specimen Pattern and Proof Coins
This seems to be a tough area of the market at the moment. They are some of Australia's rarest, most beautiful and historic coins, but they seem to suffer due to the expensive involved in buying them. Prices have come back a long way over the past 10-15 years, almost to levels where absolute bargains can be had. I expect there is still some adjustment ahead as some of the long hands exit the market slowly, but we'll eventually end up with prices at levels active collectors are prepared to pay.
Pre-Decimal (Commonwealth) Coins
We've had some periods of very strong activity in the Australian pre-decimal coin market over the past decade. As PCGS grading took hold and competition for the best registry sets began in earnest, prices zoomed up accordingly. That initial adoption period has now passed, so we're setting into a maturing phase where the next generation of registry set collectors are working out how much they should pay. I'm seeing great coins sell for prices I think are excellent value, so opportunities abound. The auction market for these coins is fairly solid - coins will only sell for what collectors are prepared to pay, so they either find a new home or they go back in the safe. Well-selected pre-decimal coins are still great to be active in.
Decimal Coins
The decimal coin market has been where it's at for the past few years now. Ever since COVID granted a whole lot of people a lot of time and government money, coloured 2 dollar coins have been going off like a frog in a sock. The passing of Her Majesty QEII added fuel to that fire, as has our Mint's innovations with such items as pink diamonds and Bluey. My own observation is that some of the puff came out of this market across 2024, the zaniness is easing and some sanity is being restored. Decimal coins will be in demand for some time yet, it may just be the market is now reverting more to collectors that are actually keen on collecting long term rather than just flipping.
World, English and Ancient Coins
These areas are really active for us - we have many clients who have branched out into areas well outside Australian numismatics. Good world coins have their own specialist domestic markets of course, so demand for world coins in Australia can come from any point in the globe. Good ancients remain tough to source in Australia, so they tend to sell quickly once advertised. British coins remain as relevant to us historically as it always has, prices in their market continue to be strong at auction.
Shipwreck Coins
We have had a lean year for shipwreck coins, for the simple reason they're rare and dang hard to obtain! We tend to move them fairly soon after advertising them, so there's an active cohort of collectors keen to build a collection in this historic area of Australian numismatics.
Tokens Medals and Medallions
This is the area of the market that is quietest in my opinion. Not in terms of activity, but in terms of profile. Buyers and sellers of these items quietly go about their business without much regard for the rest of the world, so volumes are probably determined by what comes onto the market at any one point in time. Tokens and medals have long had appeal to serious collectors for their social history, and while they may not have yet been embraced by a new generation, I fully expect their time in the sun to come again.
As I review the comments above, I can think of a few ways we can improve things to help drive the market forward. 2025 will be an interesting year ahead, I'm looking forward to it!
