Mintage Figures and Rarity of Australian Banknotes - The Case Against!

OK, so I've written extensively on the print runs of Australian polymer notes and how those statistics might be a decent guide to how rare those notes are. 

While the mintage of a particular note provides an important starting point to understanding its rarity, it doesn't always directly correlate with availability in the collector market.

Factors That Influence The True Rarity Of A Note:

1. Central Bank Holdings and Delayed Distribution

Not all banknotes printed are immediately released into circulation. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may hold large stocks of unissued notes for years before they are needed. Sudden discoveries of “new old stock” can appear when the RBA eventually issues them. This phenomenon can adjust the supply of what was previously thought to be a rare note.

2. Hoarding and Private Holdings

Many banknotes can enter circulation late because they are held privately. Investors and hoarders: High-denomination notes, especially in pristine condition, are often kept as a store of liquid wealth, specifically in case the banking system crashes.

This means some banknotes with high mintage figures may feel rarer because much of the supply is effectively locked away from circulation.

3. Attrition in Circulation

At the opposite end of the spectrum, a note may have had a large mintage but suffered heavy attrition due to circulation:
    •    Wear and tear: Banknotes degrade quickly with use. Over time, many are withdrawn and destroyed.
    •    Demonetization and withdrawal: Banknotes are removed from circulation entirely when a new series replaces them, reducing their survival rate and availability to collectors.
    •    Casual destruction: Notes can be lost, damaged beyond use, or destroyed in accidents, reducing the population even further.

For example, a well-used low-denomination note might be much scarcer in collectible grades than a high-denomination note with lower mintage but minimal circulation.

4. Collector Market Dynamics

Even when a note is technically available, the demand within the collector market plays a crucial role:
    •    Supply vs. demand: If a banknote had a low mintage but also limited interest among collectors, it may remain relatively affordable despite its rarity. Conversely, a high-mintage note with strong collector demand can command high prices.
    •    Grade sensitivity: Many collectors seek uncirculated or high-grade examples. Even for common issues, pristine notes may be genuinely rare, while circulated examples are abundant.
    •    Market awareness: If a banknote’s rarity is not widely recognized, it may remain undervalued until demand shifts due to increased awareness or changing collector trends.

Mintage figures are useful preliminary indicators of the rarity of an Australian banknote, but they shouldn't be taken in isolation. The interplay between distribution, hoarding, attrition, and collector demand determines how accessible a note truly is. Collectors looking for scarce notes must consider not only how many were printed but also how many survive today in collectible condition. That distinction makes all the difference in determining real-world rarity.